Pascal's Wager on God... and Bitcoin?

Would you believe us if we told you French philosopher Blaise Pascal predicted the rise of Bitcoin in 1662? 

Well, you shouldn't. 

Pascal is most famous among Christian Apologetics for what's become known as, "Pascal's Wager". 

For those who are unfamiliar with the term, "Christian Apologetics," this is a theological discipline dedicated to defending the faith via discourse, argumentation, and discussion.

Pascal's Wager takes a rather cold, logical, and even mathematical approach to considering the existence of God.

Essentially, Pascal makes the case that it is better to believe in God when we consider the outcomes of our decision. There are four outcomes for us in this exercise: 

Outcome #1: We believe in God, and God Exists. We, therefore, have infinite gains with Eternal Life and forgiveness. This is the best outcome and the one the Crypto Christian hopes all our readers agree with.

Outcome #2: We believe in God, and God does not exist. In this outcome, Pascal suggests we experience "finite losses". We restricted some of our behavior in our life and misallocated some of our time, energy, and money while alive... Although we would argue much of this time, energy, and money allocated to worshipping God also contributed to meaningful relationships, helping others, and being a part of your community.  

Outcome #3: We do not believe in God, and God exists. In this outcome, we experience infinite losses. We do not receive eternal salvation and are punished for our sins and our rejection of God.

Outcome #4: We do not believe in God, and God does not exist. Congratulations, militant atheists! You won... nothing? In this outcome, you have the satisfaction of knowing you were right. Well, not really because in order to realize this conclusion you have to be dead. We experience "finite gains" in this outcome. 

Here is a video that can detail Pascal's Wager in greater detail: 

Blaise Pascal is essentially applying logic and the concept of risk management to his faith in God.  

Now, believing in God because you're examining the odds of your gains or losses in a decision matrix isn't exactly inspiring. Nor will it encourage you to lead a Godly life or join a church. But it's an interesting consideration when thinking about our friends who do not believe. 

So... How does this relate to Bitcoin? 

Our friends at Geosyn Mining inspired us to write this article when they made a great point: Pascal's Wager is essentially a decision matrix that helps you mitigate and manage risk. 

Let's examine the outcomes of Pascal's Wager if we relate it to Bitcoin: 

Outcome #1: We believe Bitcoin will be a successful investment, and Bitcoin succeeds: In this outcome, we're generously rewarded for taking on the risk of being an early investor. 

Outcome #2: We believe Bitcoin will be a successful investment, and Bitcoin fails: Here we experience "finite losses". As long as we are prudent investors and never invest more than we're willing to lose, our losses upon failure are not devastating. 

Outcome #3: We do not believe Bitcoin will be successful, and Bitcoin succeeds: In this outcome, we experience a great deal of loss. One of the Crypto Christian founders learned of Bitcoin in 2014, thought it was "stupid", and decided not to invest... This man could be quite wealthy today had he taken even a small risk. 

Outcome #4: We do not believe Bitcoin will be a successful investment, and Bitcoin fails: In this scenario, we do "gain" the ability to make fun of our friends who started blogs dedicated to educating people about Bitcoin and avoid any losses from Bitcoin's price dropping to $0. But the reward isn't all that high. 

While the stakes are much higher for Pascal's Wager on God's existence... We can consider the wager when it comes to investing in any asset. 

Does this mean you should mortgage your house to invest in Bitcoin?

Absolutely not. 

However, taking a small risk by allocating a tiny portion of your portfolio to Bitcoin could have a tremendous reward. 

The "risk" of investing in Bitcoin also seems to drop as big names such as Ray Dalio, BlackRock, and other billionaires continue adopting BTC in their portfolios.